[SystemSafety] Swiss train crash

[Peter Bishop]

No I think the numbers are about right.

The probability is *per month*, so the interval in years is
1/(12*prob_per_month)

More accurate figures would be 1.1 years to 5.3 years

But this could be false precision as the accident data is fairly limited
and includes accident we might want to discount (like terrorism, cars on
rail crossings, etc).

Peter



On 30 July 2013 12:47, David Haworth <david.haworth at elektrobit.com> wrote:

> Peter,
>
> shouldn't that be "every ~ 6 to 10 years" ?
>
> Dave
>
> On 2013-07-30 12:21:15 +0100, Peter Bishop wrote:
> > Perhaps this cluster is not so surprising after all.
> >
> > A quick check of past train accident rates
> > suggest 3-5 per year in Europe.
> > i.e. P_acc=  0.25 to 0.42 per month
> >
> > So the prob of seeing 3 in a month are p_acc**3
> > i.e. 0.016 to 0.076
> >
> > Or equivalently we expect to see a triple accident month
> > every ~ 1 to 6 years
> >
> > Peter Bishop
> >
> > M Mencke wrote:
> > >What is going on?
> > >
> > >http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-23494203
> > >
> > >At least 35 people have been injured, five of them seriously, in a
> > >collision between two trains in western Switzerland.
> > >
> > >The crash happened in Granges-pres-Marnand in Vaud canton, about
> > >50km (30 miles) south-west of the capital, Bern.
> > >
> > >The regional trains collided head-on in the early evening.
> > >
> > >The driver of one of the trains died in the incident and his body
> > >was recovered from the wreckage early on Tuesday morning, Swiss
> > >police said.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >------------------------------------------------------------------------
> > >
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> > >systemsafety at TechFak.Uni-Bielefeld.DE
> >
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> > systemsafety at TechFak.Uni-Bielefeld.DE
>
> --
> David Haworth B.Sc.(Hons.), OS Kernel Developer         Tel: +49 9131
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