[SystemSafety] FW: How safe is safe?

[Loebl, Andy]

Well, I wanted to report back on my progress here.  I have purchased and read all the books and articles you have recommended to me.

 I have thus far read:
*       The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable<http://www.hotbooksale.com/p78057/The-Black-Swan-The-Impact-of-the-Highly-Improbable.html>
*       Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets<http://www.hotbooksale.com/p73304/Fooled-by-Randomness-The-Hidden-Role-of-Chance-in-Life-and-in-the-Markets.html>
*       The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: "On Robustness and Fragility"<http://www.hotbooksale.com/p3228213/The-Black-Swan-Second-Edition-The-Impact-of-the-Highly-Improbable-With-a-New-Section-On-Robustness-and-Fragility.html>
*

The (Mis)behavior of Markets:  A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin, and Reward,  Benoit Mandelbrot and Richard L. Hudson
Basic Books 2004
*       Worst Cases: Terror and Catastrophe in the Popular Imagination  By Lee Clarke, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2006
*       What's Wrong with the Numbers? A Questioning Look at Probabilistic Risk Assessment by Jack Crawford
*       "The Science and Superstition of Quantitative Risk Assessment, by A. Rae, J. McDermid and R. Alexander
My last 'summer reading' is Misconceptions of Risk.  This is a much more technical document and I am learning a lot of statistics (and re-learning a lot of course material I once went through) and will not be completed as quickly as any of the above.

I wanted to thank all of you for your input!  It helped me a lot.

andy
-----Original Message-----
From: systemsafety-bounces at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of Dominey, Alan (UK)
Sent: Wednesday, May 08, 2013 6:09 AM
To: Peter Bernard Ladkin; Rob Alexander; systemsafety at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] FW: How safe is safe?

        Terje Aven's Misconceptions of Risk

        Look for the .pdf download at the following (partial) URL
        didel.script.univ-paris-diderot.fr/claroline/backends/download.php?...


        Alan G. Dominey
        Electrical Safety Engineer
        Torpedo Capability Contract Project Surveillance Manager
        Spearfish Safety Group
        BAE Systems,  Maritime Services



-----Original Message-----
From: systemsafety-bounces at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de<mailto:systemsafety-bounces at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de> [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of Peter Bernard Ladkin
Sent: 08 May 2013 10:41
To: Rob Alexander; systemsafety at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de<mailto:systemsafety at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de>
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] FW: How safe is safe?

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Rob,

On 5/8/13 11:22 AM, Rob Alexander wrote:
> Drew, John McDermid about this recently published a paper on the
> validity of PRA ---
> http://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/~rda/PSAM%20QRA%20paper%20final.pdf --- in summary, there are a lot of big claims made about the value of PRA and precious little evidence to support them.

Thanks for the reminder about your paper. People might like to know that one of the significant sources you reference, Terje Aven's Misconceptions of Risk, at which Andy might well like to take a look, is available in (what I think is) full on the WWW. I don't know what Terje thinks of this (let alone his publisher).

PBL

Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de<http://www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de>




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