[SystemSafety] NYTimes: The Next Accident Awaits

[Tom Ferrell]

The biggest reason I would suggest for a relatively low amount of
confirmation bias in the current aerospace designee-oriented system is
that the system is structured in such a way that most compliance data is
looked at by different DERs and government specialists who, in effect,
look over each other's shoulders.  At least one if not multiple parties
in the review cycle are supposed to be free from project/program cost
and schedule pressures.  The goal is for as objective a review as
possible with a whole lot of 'what-ifs' being asked along the way.  The
system breaks down when these types of constraints are allowed to
intrude.  This sometimes happens through political pressure brought to
bear on what would otherwise be a pure regulatory function.  All of that
said, I see no distinction between this as a problem today and what
might exists should assurance/safety cases become more of the norm.  It
also breaks down, IMHO, when the focus tends to checking the box
regarding the form and format of data rather than the technical content,
something we are seeing on an ever increasing basis.



-----Original Message-----
From: systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
[mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf
Of Peter Bernard Ladkin
Sent: Monday, February 03, 2014 2:30 PM
To: Andrew Rae; systemsafety at techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] NYTimes: The Next Accident Awaits


On 2/3/14 5:31 PM, Andrew Rae wrote:
> .... Nancy has
> suggested that it leads the regulator into following the same mindset 
> as the people who present the evidence, rather than performing an
adversarial role (confirmation bias).

Tell me, if confirmation bias is such a big problem, why
civilian-aerospace DERs don't suffer from it in spades?

PBL

Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de




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