[SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?

Fri Apr 22 11:57:29 CEST 2016

I think that this is just another aspect of the Internet of Things challenge (software crisis #3). 

Really if ever there was a solid economic argument for deploying industrial scale formal method and proofs this would be it. 

Surely? 

Matthew Squair

MIEAust, CPEng
Mob: +61 488770655
Email; Mattsquair at gmail.com
Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com

> On 22 Apr 2016, at 2:20 AM, Martyn Thomas <martyn at 72f.org> wrote:
> 
> Two issues. 
> 
> 1 Recertification after software change.  Or do we just accept the huge attack surface that a fleet of AVs presents?
> 
> 2 The way in which AVs could change the safety of the total road transport system. Is anyone studying total accidents rather than AV accidents?
> 
> Regards
> 
> Martyn
> 
>> On 21 Apr 2016, at 17:47, Mike Ellims <michael.ellims at tesco.net> wrote:
>> 
>> > This approach might be « safe ». I guess nobody has experience on this type of process.
>>  
>> Mobileye has been around since 1999, Google have been letting cars drive themselves since 2009; I suspect they have probably got some experience by now. You would certainly hope so!
>>  
>> > Whatever, it seems to have no intersection with the concept of satisfying safety requirements.
>>  
>> That is possibly true at the top level for the complete system where some sort of statistical criteria may be more appropriate. However at the subsystem level I think that quite a number, or perhaps all of the principles laid out in IEC 16508 and ISO 26262 probably carry across quite well e.g. safety goals/requirements for system architecture  attributes such as fail silent/fail active,  warning and degradation concept etc. At lower levels requirements on the software for the inference engine design and code and requirements are applicable. For hardware  concepts such as safe failure fraction, failure detection percentage etc. would also be applicable.
>>  
>> While having a dig around the interweb for information on Google’s self driving cars and the validation process I came across the following summary of drivers disengagements which gives a little insight into the process being used by Google and may be of interest and simulate further discussion.
>>  
>> https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en//selfdrivingcar/files/reports/report-annual-15.pdf
>>  
>>  
>> From: RICQUE Bertrand (SAGEM DEFENSE SECURITE) [mailto:bertrand.ricque at sagem.com] 
>> Sent: 21 April 2016 15:12
>> To: Mike Ellims; 'Bielefield Safety List'
>> Cc: systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
>> Subject: RE: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>>  
>> This approach might be « safe ». I guess nobody has experience on this type of process.
>>  
>> Whatever, it seems to have no intersection with the concept of satisfying safety requirements.
>>  
>> Bertrand Ricque
>> Program Manager
>> Optronics and Defence Division
>> Sights Program
>> Mob : +33 6 87 47 84 64
>> Tel : +33 1 58 11 96 82
>> Bertrand.ricque at sagem.com
>>  
>> From: Mike Ellims [mailto:michael.ellims at tesco.net] 
>> Sent: Thursday, April 21, 2016 3:35 PM
>> To: RICQUE Bertrand (SAGEM DEFENSE SECURITE); 'Bielefield Safety List'
>> Cc: systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
>> Subject: RE: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>>  
>> Bertrand Ricque wrote
>>  
>> > Safety critical software is not a question of time. It is a question of hunting bugs, in particular in uneasy access corners,
>> > using dedicated methodologies, techniques and tools.
>>  
>> That is true only up to a point, doing a bit of digging it seems that the majority of these systems are built on machine learning systems, so how you train them is going to be a large part of how “dependable” they are. Thus even if the code that implements the systems neural network  is perfect and is totally bug free (see below) the “dependability” of the final system is  on how good the training and testing  sets are which in turn is dependent on how many real world situations you can accumulate and present to the system.
>>  
>> Hence Google’s approach of running around lots of cars to get as much information about road configurations, behaviour of other vehicles, issues (e.g. road signs obscured  by bushes) as possible which they can then combine with their humongous database of all the worlds roads.
>>  
>> Tesla appears to uses a vision system from Mobileye, who’s website states on their planning systems;
>>  
>> <snip> First, we apply supervised learning for predicting the near future based on the present. We require that the predictor will be
>> differentiable with respect to the representation of the present. Second, we model a full trajectory of the agent using a
>> recurrent neural network, where unexplained factors are modeled as (additive) input nodes. <snip>
>>  
>>  
>>  
>> From: systemsafety [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of RICQUE Bertrand (SAGEM DEFENSE SECURITE)
>> Sent: 21 April 2016 13:37
>> To: Bielefield Safety List
>> Cc: systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
>> Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>>  
>> Safety critical software is not a question of time. It is a question of hunting bugs, in particular in uneasy access corners, using dedicated methodologies, techniques and tools.
>>  
>> Say that you forgot to take into account in your software the fact that every 100 years bissextile years are not as every 4 years, you will never find it whatever the number of kilometres, cars and hours you use the system between 2001 and 2099…
>>  
>> And whatever the good performance of your system during 99 years, there will be absolutely zero excuse for the consequent accidents …
>>  
>> A good way to challenge the designers of such systems would be to make their children responsible for the damages …
>>  
>> Bertrand Ricque
>> Program Manager
>> Optronics and Defence Division
>> Sights Program
>> Mob : +33 6 87 47 84 64
>> Tel : +33 1 58 11 96 82
>> Bertrand.ricque at sagem.com
>>  
>> From: systemsafety [mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of Nick Tudor
>> Sent: Thursday, April 21, 2016 2:27 PM
>> To: Matthew Squair
>> Cc: Bielefield Safety List
>> Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?
>>  
>> This report has just come to my attention.  Stats based and an interesting read as it addresses most of the points made on this thread in one way or another:
>>  
>> http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html  
>> 
>> Nick Tudor
>> Tudor Associates Ltd
>> Mobile: +44(0)7412 074654
>> www.tudorassoc.com
>> <image001.jpg>
>>  
>> 77 Barnards Green Road
>> Malvern
>> Worcestershire
>> WR14 3LR
>> Company No. 07642673
>> VAT No:116495996
>>  
>> www.aeronautique-associates.com
>>  
>> On 18 April 2016 at 22:01, Matthew Squair <mattsquair at gmail.com> wrote:
>> More that I don't see the value of multi million trip test programs that others might. ;)
>> 
>> Matthew Squair
>>  
>> MIEAust, CPEng
>> Mob: +61 488770655
>> Email; Mattsquair at gmail.com
>> Web: http://criticaluncertainties.com
>> 
>> On 18 Apr 2016, at 10:13 PM, Peter Bernard Ladkin <ladkin at rvs.uni-bielefeld.de> wrote:
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> On 2016-04-18 14:03 , Matthew Squair wrote:
>> 
>> But I'd personally be comfortable after a couple of months of realistic road trials.
>> 
>> Hey, folks, we gotta volunteer!......... How you gonna line all those companies up, Matthew? :-)
>> 
>> PBL
>> 
>> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
>> Je suis Charlie
>> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>> 
>> 
>> 
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