[SystemSafety] Notions of Risk

[Martyn Thomas]

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA512

I agree that a frequentist probability approach to security is
inappropriate and that uncertainty is a better word. The likelihood that
a security vulnerability will be exploited is not stochastic, but it
makes good sense to talk about relative likelihoods (if there is a mass
escape from your neighbouring prison then it is more likely that someone
will try to break into your house).

Martyn

On 13/01/2016 06:12, Peter Bernard Ladkin wrote:
> There is some move to consider safety and security together in engineered systems and as a result
> I have come across - again - various informal notions of risk. I
thought it worth while to perform
> a quick (but incomplete) survey of current standards and to try to
elucidate the components
> currently thought to go together to constitute risk.
> http://www.abnormaldistribution.org/2016/01/12/risk/
>
> In a nutshell, the project-management idea of risk as the chance that
things will go badly wrong
> is on the way out (it's been replaced in ISO/IEC Guide 73). That's
something to applaud, in my
> view. But there are often things wrong with the probability/likelihood
component of our favored
> notion, and visible suggestions it be generalised into something like
a measure of uncertainty.
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Faculty of Technology, University of
Bielefeld, 33594 Bielefeld, Germany
> Je suis Charlie
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de
>
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> The System Safety Mailing List
> systemsafety at TechFak.Uni-Bielefeld.DE
>

-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG/MacGPG2 v2
Comment: GPGTools - http://gpgtools.org
Comment: Using GnuPG with Thunderbird - http://www.enigmail.net/

iQEcBAEBCgAGBQJWlibJAAoJEAev1z3Tv8QLisUIAINbjCBsHXCLFmeWfFdxq+Er
vSbwRYtMvM5ptrv0T3Sgwaq7qQVkj71z/hQzCBt9yfE2IbRZ+/tgJeAj4bbwxcq5
m6yDzTRDQkSPWvMzD2EqHkSHT7RNhaizNk+LtkWt6jFXrdUrliC29yAOakM/v4xj
Bg+2U+Rv8RU7SyhxN/25uhmfzdhA//5nK29SY03mbYSck+xv0/Rfv2eKJceHN6qX
6mbRLXZ5LBvhKSh3SjygKLHLOFxw5t2PP7KFSrau3+IeO8/a9gm8pKMnHd66e4N+
lWKpzc0MJ7figxzBdDa7Ct/xSfRHbwxZ41pM5ZWOeu/aAEXQj3FsYonoiPXfKyE=
=q0+j
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de/mailman/private/systemsafety/attachments/20160113/cb05ddda/attachment.html>