[SystemSafety] Autonomously Driven Car Kills Pedestrian

[Mario Gleirscher]

Nice estimation (it even matches my gut feelings :). Surely we are
talking about 1.18E-8 when driving under any thinkable adverse
condition, off-road, backwards, without light, with broken cars, through
roadworks, non-cooperative road participants, whatever ... right? All
stuff for which (by public consensus) responsibility is in the hands of
the driver.

Question 1: Just curious, did you compare it with what they used in

Kalra, N. & Paddock, S. M. Driving to Safety: How Many Miles of Driving
Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? RAND Corp.,
RAND Corp., 2016

?

Question 2: Does anybody of us know exactly about the testing conditions
_in the field_? By exactly, I mean _exactly_.

I suggest those conditions do not even in the slightest sense match with
what is found on non-lab/non-instrumented streets. According to my state
of knowledge, no one seems to properly discuss that, instead governments
seem to be more declining regulatory opportunities (I am not talking
about ISO 26262 v2 which is of course not supposed to play a relevant
role in AV regulation).

I am insisting on _exactly_, because when selling AVs, then testing on
public land might grant the public the legal right to know all about the
testing conditions (I am not just talking about the Waymo safety
report). This would ultimately mean, that we would have the legal right
to look into the implementations of each and every AV vendors field test
procedures.

Happy to know if that makes sense?

Mario


On 22.03.2018 08:44, Peter Bishop wrote:
> Based on the data, we could reject the hypothesis that Uber is as safe
> as human-driven (1.18E-8) with 99.998% confidence.
> 
> And we could reject the hypothesis that Uber is better than 1 in a
> million miles with 91% confidence.
> 
> So they have quite a way to go.
> 
> Peter
> 
> On 21/03/2018 23:29, Smith, Brian E. (ARC-TH) wrote:
>> Note sure if such a comparison would pass muster statistically.  As of
>> 2015, for human-driven passenger cars here in the U.S., there were about
>> 1.18 fatalities per 100 million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT).  Both the
>> numerator and denominator are large enough to make the ratio reliable.
>>
>> In 2017, driverless cars accumulated only about 485,000 miles of testing
>> here in California.  If the single Arizona accident had happened in my
>> state, CA, then the rate would be 1 fatal accident every 485,000 miles for
>> ³autonomous² vehicles or ~200 times greater than for human drivers.  But
>> the numerator is too small to be statistically reliable - basically
>> fatalities are too rare at this time.  Yes/no?
> 

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