[SystemSafety] Autonomously Driven Car Kills Pedestrian

[Peter Bishop]

On 22/03/2018 09:39, Mario Gleirscher wrote:
> Nice estimation (it even matches my gut feelings :). Surely we are
> talking about 1.18E-8 when driving under any thinkable adverse
> condition, off-road, backwards, without light, with broken cars, through
> roadworks, non-cooperative road participants, whatever ... right? All
> stuff for which (by public consensus) responsibility is in the hands of
> the driver.
> 
> Question 1: Just curious, did you compare it with what they used in
> 
> Kalra, N. & Paddock, S. M. Driving to Safety: How Many Miles of Driving
> Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? RAND Corp.,
> RAND Corp., 2016

No I didn't.
But looking at the extract supplied by  Mario Gleirscher,
I would agree with their calculations

But I don't like the term "failure free". I would prefer "fatal accident
free".

There are lots more non-fatal accidents, and this may one way of getting
an earlier estimate of how well self-drive is doing - i.e. are the
non-fatal accident rates similar? Not sure what the human accident rate
is, but my guess would be 1 in 100000 miles, so you could get 95%
confidence for that rate with around a quarter of a million miles of
accident free self-drive.

-- 

Peter Bishop
Chief Scientist
Adelard LLP
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