[SystemSafety] "FAA chief '100% confident' of 737 MAX safety as flights to resume"

[Michael Holloway]

I'm with Tom on this one.  Some of the posts here have been rather
embarrassing.  As those who know me already know, I am not inclined to
defend FAA management. In fact, I criticize them often, sometimes even in
my official capacity*.   They often do and say dumb things, and pressure
their employees to do the same.  But the criticism here is ridiculous.

First, it is pedantry of an extreme sort to think that "100% confident"
means anything more than "as confident as it is possible for me to be."

Second, it is irresponsible moralizing to claim that making such a
statement is irresponsible, inappropriate, technically indefensible,
misleading, or any of the other bad things attributed to it.  If the
statement had been written in a technical paper, without any qualifiers
explaining "100% confident" was being used in the colloquial sense, then
criticism would be warranted. It wasn't.

Third, everything Tom wrote about the level of scrutiny the plane has
undergone is correct.  I'm as wary a flier as nearly anyone on the planet.
If I had to fly somewhere, I would not hesitate for a second (note, this
phrase is used in its well-known idiomatic sense, and not as a technical
statement of a bound on the length of my hesitation) to fly on a 737 MAX
flown by a US carrier.


*--cMh*

*Lest anyone think otherwise, I am not writing this message in any official
capacity, and the opinions expressed in it are attributable to me alone.

mercy > judgment
love > faith & hope
grace > law


On Fri, Nov 20, 2020 at 7:59 AM Olwen Morgan <olwen at phaedsys.com> wrote:

>
>
> Thus spake a man whose email address ends, ".faaconsulting.com". I'm
> happy to let him bear any residual risks *before* I do.
>
>
> Olwen
>
>
>
> On 20/11/2020 12:43, Tom Ferrell wrote:
>
> Seeing this sentiment a lot in the press reporting and find it utterly
> ridiculous.  This aircraft is now the most scrutinized aircraft in the
> history of the commercial transport fleet.  Multiple regulators, multiple
> deep dives through the flight control design and then a fanout into just
> about every other system-critical system onboard.  Couple that with the
> overall history of 737 safety and its hard to see how more could be done
> given the current regulations and oversight bodies that we have to ensure
> the safety of this aircraft type.  Just my opinion of course, but I, for
> one, will feel perfectly comfortable flying in this aircraft. The question
> is really what has the breakdown in processes and safety culture at Boeing
> meant for other recent aircraft development…
>
>
>
> *From:* systemsafety <systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de>
> <systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de> *On Behalf Of *Olwen
> Morgan
> *Sent:* Friday, November 20, 2020 7:25 AM
> *To:* systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
> *Subject:* Re: [SystemSafety] "FAA chief '100% confident' of 737 MAX
> safety as flights to resume"
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> As the old adage goes, "You won't catch me up in one of those things!"
>
>
>
> Olwen
>
>
>
> On 19/11/2020 10:44, Peter Bernard Ladkin wrote:
>
>
>
> On 2020-11-19 08:54 , Jon Hind wrote:
>
>
>   " 'I feel 100% confident,' said Dickson, a former airline and military
> pilot, who took over as FAA administration in August 2019 and took the
> controls for a 737 MAX test flight in September."
>
> If the head of  the F.A.A. has 100% confidence then what hope is there for
> the general population in understanding real world risks ?
>
> Assuming he was flying for an hour or less, I think he is entitled to
> round to the nearest 8 significant figures.......
>
> PBL
>
> Prof. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany
> ClaireTheWhiteRabbit RIP
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs-bi.de
>
>
>
>
>
>
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