[SystemSafety] AI in self-driving cars? What are they thinking?

[Michael J. Pont]

Hi Les,

Always a pleasure to read your contributions - thank you.

Do you have evidence for penguins pushing each other into the water as a
'seal test'?

This site argues against your position:
https://www.penguinworld.com/profpenguin/faq.html

All the best,

Michael.

Michael J. Pont

-----Original Message-----
From: systemsafety
[mailto:systemsafety-bounces at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de] On Behalf Of
Les Chambers
Sent: 09 February 2022 05:51
To: Peter Bernard Ladkin <ladkin at causalis.com>;
systemsafety at lists.techfak.uni-bielefeld.de
Subject: Re: [SystemSafety] AI in self-driving cars? What are they thinking?

Re: US tolerance of road deaths

As an Australian living in the bay area of San Francisco in the 1970s I was
intrigued by the local laissez-faire attitude to road accidents. Reports
would come over drive radio, "Hey there's been a wreck on the Nimitz freeway
it's going to be a lousy commute." No details on injuries or deaths. 
Later on, the classic clearance news item would go, "Hey the wreck on the
Nimitz has been sanitised. It's gonna be a great commute!" Commendable
stoicism.
I segue to Antarctica where penguins gather on ice flows in great numbers.
Before they dive into the water they inspect their environment for leopard
seals. Leopard seals eat penguins. They have also been observed pushing one
or two of their number into the water to validate their test by inspection.
The USA, with its stoic acceptance of a high road toll, provides the perfect
incubator for driverless cars. The demise of the odd experimental penguin is
lost in the weeds.

OR
You could look at this another way .

>From 1580 to 1630 during the European wars of religion an estimated 40,000
witches were burnt at the stake. In the UK Prior to 1967 you could be
arrested for being a homosexual. An ancient Arab poet said, 'It is your
manners that determine how civilised you are.' Our civility has evolved to
the point where we no longer torture and kill people whose behaviour lies a
few standard deviations east or west of some traditional norm. Neither do we
throw virgins into volcanoes to appease the gods OR SACRIFICE HUMAN LIFE ON
THE ALTAR OF INNOVATION. It's considered bad manners.
Today's engineers are equipped with improved tools (I.e. simulators) and
analysis methods to push the probably of dangerous failure out into the
10^-6 never never long before we hand our work products to the public. All
the public has to do is make sure they are used. 
And here lies the problem. 
In 1580 burning witches was the right thing to do because the priest told us
so. He was always right because he had a direct line to . you know who .
Besides, he was the only guy in the village who could read. Today the same
massive ignorance in the general public allows equally medieval practices to
prosper. 
The tech giants are the new age priests. But who'd want to be an
experimental penguin?

> One thing which it only now occurs to me to mention is differing 
> national tolerance for road fatalities. Britain had a population of 
> 67.22m and 1460 road fatalities in 2020; Germany 83.24m
and 
> 2724 fatalities, and the US 329.5m and 38,680 fatalities.
> 
> That comes to about 1 death per 46K people in GB, 1 per 30K in D, and 
> 1 per 8.5K in USA. The
rate in 
> the US is thus 5.7 times that in the UK, and 3.5 times that in D.
> 
> I do think that makes a difference, just as we have learnt that there 
> are large differences
between 
> these countries in the way they deal with Covid-19. But I don't know what
difference.
> 
> If GB had the rate of the US, there would be 8000 road deaths per 
> year. And that is with seat
belts 
> and airbags. There have never been that in GB except in 1941, with 
> just over 9,000, although
1966 
> came close with just under 8,000. Notice that seat belt wearing only
became mandatory in 1983.
> 
> PBL
> 
> Prof. i.R. Dr. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319  www.rvs-bi.de



--
Les Chambers
les at chambers.com.au
+61 (0)412 648 992


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