[SystemSafety] Difference between software reliability and astrology

[Paul Sherwood]

On 2024-08-21 10:30, Prof. Dr. Peter Bernard Ladkin wrote:
>>>> "We conclude that establishing the reliability of RTOS practically 
>>>> using the Bernoulli/Poisson mathematics in this manner looks close 
>>>> to infeasible. Yet Annex D currently states in its second sentence 
>>>> “This approach is considered particularly appropriate as part of the 
>>>> qualification of operating systems, [etc.]” !
>>>> 
>>>> It seems to me that for complex software in general, we'll need 
>>>> something better?
>>> 
>>> Better? Like what?
>> 
>> https://mathworld.wolfram.com/BayesianAnalysis.html perhaps?
> 
> That is a category mistake. Bayesian analysis is a form of statistical 
> inference, it's not a collection of different stochastic processes.

If I'm misusing the terminology, I apologise. My point was that, 
accepting the likely infeasibility of using "Bernoulli/Poisson 
mathematics", we  look for an alternative. It seems to me that we may be 
able to apply a Bayesian approach in that search.

br
Paul