[SystemSafety] [System Safety] FOSDEM talk by Paul Sherwood

Derek M Jones derek at knosof.co.uk
Tue Feb 11 22:04:01 CET 2025


Peter,

>> What they actually say is that it requires a lot of work, implying that
>> it may be too expensive or time consuming to be be cost effective
> 
> There is often a difference between what people choose to write in a paper, and what the important result is.

There is often a difference between what words people read in a paper,
and how they choose to interpret them.

The 1993 Littlewood and Strigini paper is essentially a position
paper bolstered by some back of the envelope calculations.

The 2002 paper by Bishop, P. G. & Bloomfield, R. E.
"Worst Case Reliability Prediction Based on a Prior Estimate of Residual Defects"
https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/546/
lays out the maths line by line.

This paper clearly shows the worst case requirements needed
to meet SIL2 - SIL4 reliability requirements, i.e., a given
probability of failure within a hour of operation.

It's not impossible, but it is probably a lot more expensive
than most people are willing to pay.

-- 
Derek M. Jones           Evidence-based software engineering
blog:https://shape-of-code.com



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