[SystemSafety] [System Safety] FOSDEM talk by Paul Sherwood
Derek M Jones
derek at knosof.co.uk
Tue Feb 11 22:04:01 CET 2025
Peter,
>> What they actually say is that it requires a lot of work, implying that
>> it may be too expensive or time consuming to be be cost effective
>
> There is often a difference between what people choose to write in a paper, and what the important result is.
There is often a difference between what words people read in a paper,
and how they choose to interpret them.
The 1993 Littlewood and Strigini paper is essentially a position
paper bolstered by some back of the envelope calculations.
The 2002 paper by Bishop, P. G. & Bloomfield, R. E.
"Worst Case Reliability Prediction Based on a Prior Estimate of Residual Defects"
https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/546/
lays out the maths line by line.
This paper clearly shows the worst case requirements needed
to meet SIL2 - SIL4 reliability requirements, i.e., a given
probability of failure within a hour of operation.
It's not impossible, but it is probably a lot more expensive
than most people are willing to pay.
--
Derek M. Jones Evidence-based software engineering
blog:https://shape-of-code.com
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