[SystemSafety] Estimating time to next fault report

[Martyn Thomas]

This seems to me to be curve-fitting of poorly understood and inaccurate data, presented with no error probabilities and no analysis of underlying mechanisms. tl;dr totally useless. Convince me I’m mistaken. 

Regards

Martyn

> On 7 Jan 2026, at 13:24, Derek M Jones <derek at knosof.co.uk> wrote:
> 
> All,
> 
> A Happy New Year to you all.
> 
> After the arrival of a fault report for a program
> what is the expected elapsed time until the next
> fault report arrives?
> 
> The answer depends on whether you are interested in
> the next report of a known fault (i.e., already reported
> at least once), or the next report of an unknown fault.
> 
> An analysis of the problem here
> https://shape-of-code.com/2026/01/04/modelling-time-to-next-reported-fault/
> 
> tl;dr: Modelling time to next previously unreported fault has
> an analytic solution that depends on variables whose values
> have to be approximately approximated.
> 
> --
> Derek M. Jones           Evidence-based software engineering
> blog:https://shape-of-code.com
> 
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