<html><body style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue',Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> <br />It seems several of the issues that might be of interest in defining risk and risk management are raised in Les’ post.<div><br /></div><div>I’ll try to abstract away from the subject matter as much as possible.<br /><div><br /></div><div>1: This is a system with motivated agents, so is risk management applicable?</div><div><br /></div><div>Experience with cyber risk management would suggest that assigning probabilities/metrics to the actions of motivated agents leads to incorrect calculations.</div><div><br /></div><div>2: Who is the appropriate duty holder to manage these hazards?<br /><br />Seems a lot of technical support for the proposition that effective hazard management should be undertaken with the largest system boundary that can be drawn. Here we are talking quite literally about societal level hazards. </div><div><br /></div><div>3: Where does individual risk management fit in the hierarchy of controls?</div><div><br /></div><div>Is it even personal protective equipment? Are individual hazard mitigations like disengaging from society or quitting a job realistic options? Will a risk-based approach really make useful predictions about the actions of motivated agents, especially at the individual level?<br /><blockquote><br />----- Original Message -----<br /><div style="width:100%;background:rgb(228,228,228);"><div style="font-weight:bold;">From:</div> les@chambers.com.au</div><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">To:</div>"Peter Bernard Ladkin" <ladkin@causalis.com>, "The System Safety List" <systemsafety@techfak.uni-bielefeld.de><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Cc:</div><br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Sent:</div>Fri, 30 Sep 2022 01:29:25 +1000<br /><div style="font-weight:bold;">Subject:</div>Re: [SystemSafety] Risk .... again<br /><br /><br />
Bernard<br />
I feel your pain. I empathize but encourage you to crack on. You are a good <br />
soldier for the cause.<br />
Ive had my own problems explaining risk to none other than the sisterhood. <br />
A while ago a young woman - a SCEGGS girl - went to a party and got legless <br />
drunk.<br />
SCEGGS is an exclusive girls high school based in Darlinghurst Sydney. My <br />
mother was a SCEGGS girl in the 1920s. <br />
All the boys at the party were students at exclusive Sydney boys schools. One <br />
of them decided to have sex with this unfortunate young woman when she was not <br />
in a state to reject or except him. She may not even have been conscious. <br />
Another boy filmed the encounter and the video appeared on the web.<br />
I know. Jesus wept.<br />
Time passed and I could not walk past this story. My mother was a SCEGGS girl <br />
for Christ sake and I have three daughters.<br />
So I composed a 4000 word email on risk management to the headmistress of <br />
SCEGGS. <br />
The skinny was as follows:<br />
1.Young women have no control over the actions of male animals who feel <br />
entitled to hurt them. They do not have the muscle mass to stop them.<br />
2.They do have control over who they associate with, where they go, how much <br />
they drink, how they dress, and so on. The issue is risk assessment and risk <br />
reduction by having two wines and leaving the party if youre concerned about <br />
the rough trade leering at you.<br />
3.Conclusion: young women should be taught risk management as a subject at <br />
school.<br />
I was about to deliver a keynote at a Safety-Critical Systems Club conference <br />
in Sydney so I volunteered to visit SCEGGS and meet with the head mistress to <br />
further explain.<br />
The response was crickets.<br />
At the conference I told the story and asked for volunteers to visit SCEGGS <br />
should they change their minds as I am not a Sydney resident. One lady <br />
volunteered. Nothing came of it.<br />
But theres more. <br />
Proud of my attempt to protect young women I related the story to one of my <br />
daughters. A few sentences into the narrative she stood up and screamed at me <br />
for victim blaming. Im still trying to recover my relationship with that <br />
young woman. Since that horrible experience I have noticed exactly the same <br />
response from many intelligent (but risk illiterate) women who I have had the <br />
stupidity to engage in discussion on womens issues. The almost universal <br />
response from the ladies is hand wringing. The narrative is invariably: A <br />
woman should be able to go anywhere she likes, dress anyway she wants and <br />
drink as much as she likes. Followed by, These misogynous pigs should be <br />
trained to respect women. If the lady hasnt left the room and the screaming <br />
is only moderate I try to express furious agreement with these sentiments but <br />
with the caveat that lectures on how boys should be trained will not protect <br />
her daughter at the party she is attending this evening. Risk management will.<br />
I note that there was no such reaction from the many professional women in the <br />
room at the Safety-Critical Systems Club conference. Card-carrying risk <br />
managers all.<br /><br />
From all this I conclude that:<br />
1.It takes significant training hours to produce a person who understands and <br />
values risk and risk management techniques. Even more to motivate them to <br />
actually use the techniques. It often takes blood. Contrast the professional <br />
women at the conference with the ladies in the wild.<br />
2.The standards wonks are therefore wasting their time redefining risk, its <br />
a simple concept but hard enough to explain as it is. Let us leave its <br />
definition alone and concentrate the substantial intellectual energy penned up <br />
in these working groups to designing pathways to educate civilians on what it <br />
really means together with how to implement effective risk management.<br /><br />
As for me, I refuse to give up. It does my head in to contemplate all the <br />
young women who will be abused tonight for lack of a simple element of <br />
education. If anyone on the list has ideas Id love to hear them. I have <br />
considered stealth. Get my 4000 words published under a female Pseudonym. My <br />
working theory is that women just dont want to hear suggestions from blokes. <br />
Hope Im wrong.<br /><br />
Back to your pain Bernard. In extremis theres always the Rudyard Kipling <br />
option.<br /><br />
When youre wounded and left on Afghanistans planes<br />
And the women come out to cut up what remains<br />
Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains<br />
And go to your gawd like a soldier<br /><br />
Cheers<br />
Les<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />
> ISO and IEC have finally determined that there is an issue with figuring out <br />
what people mean when <br />
> they use the term "risk" technically. They have convened a "joint task <br />
force" to try to sort it out <br />
> https://www.iec.ch/ords/f?<br />
p=103:85:612946702359029::::FSP_ORG_ID,FSP_LANG_ID:28611,25. I am <br />
> sceptical they will come up with a good solution, because candidates for <br />
such WGs are self-selecting <br />
> (the actual members of the JTF nominated by the National Committees are not <br />
shown. More to the <br />
> point, I know some of them :-( ).<br />
> <br />
> They might improve the outcome if the JTF included by invitation at least <br />
some internationally <br />
> acknowledged experts with well-regarded publications on the subject.<br />
> <br />
> But, whatever. There are little things we plebs can do. Here's a picture <br />
caption from a piece in The <br />
> Guardian today: "Adults who took part in âregularâ weightlifting were <br />
found to have a 14% lower risk <br />
> of death."<br />
> <br />
> Source: <br />
> https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/sep/27/exercise-with-weights-<br />
linked-to-lower-risk-of-early-death-study-says <br />
> (no paywall)<br />
> <br />
> So, folks, go out and buy yourselves some weights and use them. It gives you <br />
a 16% chance of <br />
> immortality. But what I think is more significant is the crystal-ball <br />
technology the investigators <br />
> seem to be using to judge the immortality. I'd be keen to know more about <br />
that.<br />
> <br />
> PBL<br />
> <br />
> Prof. i.R. Dr. Peter Bernard Ladkin, Bielefeld, Germany<br />
> Tel+msg +49 (0)521 880 7319 www.rvs-bi.de<br /><br /><br /><br />
--<br /><br />
Les Chambers<br /><br />
les@chambers.com.au<br /><br />
+61 (0)412 648 992<br /><br /><br />
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