[SystemSafety] Autonomous Vehicle Safety

Derek M Jones derek at knosof.co.uk
Wed Dec 17 16:45:54 CET 2025


Peter,

The authors make some simplistic assumptions, plug some
numbers in to basic statistical formula, plot some pretty
graphs, and then conclude that "...  testers cannot drive
their way to safety."
to meet the reliability required to meet the numbers plugged
in by the authors.

No attempt to show how the numbers they used connect to
human accident numbers.

To my non-automotive-expert eye, it looks like they decided
on a conclusion and then picked numbers to validate it.

> https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0965856416302129

2,049 citations on Google Scholar.

> On the other hand, since the first author is at RAND, maybe there is a report to download at no charge. Indeed so, through
> 
> https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1478.html

6 citations, and no link to the paper.

-- 
Derek M. Jones           Evidence-based software engineering
blog:https://shape-of-code.com



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